As promised here is my National League preview for the 2010 season.
NL WEST
Colorado Rockies
Last Season: 92-70 NL Wild Card
This season, the Rockies will overtake the Dodgers as the champs of the NL WEST. Of the three teams in contention last season in the West, the Rockies had the least amount of turnover. Their offense remains intact and the pitching staff did not undergo any major changes. This pick is not so much that the Rockies have dramatically improved, but that the two other teams in contention got worse and I think this clubhouse will benefit from a full season under Manager Jim Tracy and some rare continuity amongst a lineup.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Last Season: 70-92 25 GB of 1st place LAD
The D-backs are my pick for most improved team in 2010. Brandon Webb returns to the rotation which will only improve the performance of new Ace Dan Haren. The lineup improves with the addition of 1B Adam LaRoche. As long as RF Justin Upton lives up to his Willie Mays-esque hype, and Mark Reynolds maintains his power numbers, they will have a very successful season. I don't know that they'll peak much higher than .500, but I expect to see a rather large drop off in production from the rest of the NL WEST, so second place is definitely a realistic outcome for this club.
San Fransisco Giants
Last Season: 88-74 6 GB of 1st place LAD
The Giants will end this season in the same place they left it last season. Once again they will be faced with the same problems that plagued them all season last year. A phenomenal young pitching staff and likely a 3rd consecutive Cy Young winner in Tim Lincecum, and a terrible offense that outside of Pablo Sandoval will not produce nearly enough runs to improve on last year's record. They may surprise me and be a second place caliber team midway through the year, but unless they add a bat at the trade deadline I expect nothing more from the Giants this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Last Season: 95-67 1st place NL WEST
I expect a large drop off in the Dodgers this season. They do have wonderful young talent in OF Matt Kemp, but and inconsistent pitching staff and an aging and roidless Manny Ramirez will leave this team in search of victories. The ace on their staff this year is Clayton Kershaw who was lights out last season. His biggest issue is not his performance but the run support he received last season. With the lineup subtracting rather than adding this season, I look for that problem to continue. One shining spot that could drastically change this prediction is the return of SS Rafael Furcal. If Furcal can put up numbers similar to his 2008 campaign he could be a candidate for NL Comeback player of the year.
San Diego Padres
Last Season: 75-87 20 GB of 1st place LAD
The Padres will end this season is last place in the NL WEST. I expect them to move 1B Adrian Gonzalez by the trade deadline in July. That being said, the only offense in a true pitchers ball park will be gone by my calculations, resulting in an even worse offensive output for this team compared to last year. Add that to the fact that they traded away their longtime ace SP Jake Peavy and this team is looking like it'll give the Pirates a run for the worst record in the league.
NL CENTRAL
St. Louis Cardinals
Last Season: 91-71 1st place in the NL CENTRAL
The Cardinals will repeat as the champions in the National League Central. I expect this team to win 100 games this season due to the contributions of OF Matt Holliday and a healthy SP Chris Carpenter. They have added a lot of depth to their infield with Felipe Lopez fighting for a starting position with SS Brenden Ryan. The bullpen remains mainly the same with CL Ryan Franklin returning after his breakout season last year.
Milwaukee Brewers
Last Season: 80-82 11 GB of StL
The Brewers will win the NL Wild card birth this season. Their lineup is scary good with the Prince and Ryan Braun. It looks to get even better with the addition of rookie SS Alcides Escobar and new addition OF Carlos Gomez. With those additions one thing is certain, this offense will have speed and power. what more could you want? The pitching staff remains largely the same, but its success rests largely on the health of SP Yovanni Gallardo.
Cincinnati Reds
Last Season: 78-84 13 GB of StL
I look for the Reds to reach .500 this season, leaping over last year's division runner up Chicago. The emergence of some young stars like 1B Joey Votto give this offense a sense of fidelity between seasons. If the pitching staff can hold together the whole season, mainly the performances of SPs Aaron Harang and Bronson Aaroyo, this team could very well be in contention for a wild card spot. If Aroldis Chapman can get healthy and win 10 games I look for this team to be a serious threat.
Chicago Cubs
Last Season: 83-78 7.5 GB of StL
I hate to break it to the fans of the north siders, but this team isn't getting any younger. The fact of the matter is that injuries kept this team out of the playoffs last year and it might do the same this season. Aramis Ramirez returns to the lineup but Derek Lee is one year older, Alfonso Soriano is coming off of his worst big league season, and there is very little to be excited about in the pitching rotation. Add that to unproven closer Carlos Marmol being the saves man, and I wouldn't be surprised if this team finishes far worse than .500
Houston Astros
Last Season: 74-88 17 GB of StL
The Astros lost their most productive bat from last season SS Miguel Tejada this off season. They have some excellent young pieces in OF Hunter Pence, but their age in the infield is cause for concern. I look for the pitching staff to be largely improved with Roy Oswalt healthy and the emergence of youngster Bud Norris, but they lost their closer and will receive little run support.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Last Season: 62-99 28.5 GB of StL
Pirates fans have something to look forward to at the beginning of this season, an electric outfielder in Andrew McCutchen and a potentially huge contributor in OF Garret Jones. However, whether or not the Pittsburgh Prospects will deal these youngsters by the deadline remains to be seen. Unfortunately a franchise with the history of the Bucos doesn't give fans too much to cheer for.
NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Last Season: 86-76 7 GB of division champ PHI
The Braves enter the 2010 campaign with a very interesting pitching staff. The youngsters Jurjens and Hanson, they could feasibly win over 90 games. I happen to believe that they will which is why they are my pick to overtake two time defending champs Philadelphia. The addition of power bat Troy Glaus and the hyped debut of RF Jason Heyward, makes this my team to watch for a deep playoff run in the NL.
Philadelphia Phillies.
Last Season: 93-69 1st place NL EAST
Continuity will help this Phillies club in 2010. I really only picked against them because of the noticeable changes of the Braves this off-season. Personally I think the Phils will be worse off down the stretch with Roy Halladay over Cliff Lee. The numbers don't lie. There is no better pitcher before the all-star break in recent memory than Roy Halladay. After the all-star break however is a different story. This team is playing for the World Series and nothing less. I hate to break it to Philly fans, but this ain't your year.
New York Mets
Last Season: 70-92 23 GB of PHI
This team is interesting in general. If healthy last year its possible they finish in second place in the NL EAST. I think they will be better off if SS Jose Reyes is back in the lineup by the end of April. However, without a run producer and base stealer like ReyesI can't see them crawling any higher in this very competitive division.
Florida Marlins
Last Season: 87-75 6 GB of PHI
The Marlins will tail off this season due to a lack of pitching. Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco out performed expectations last season, and I look for them to come back to earth this year. They have a solid enough lineup to keep them in games but without a true ace on the staff I can't see them improving on an overperforming record from last season.
Washington Nationals
Last Season: 59-103 34 GB of PHI
Good news Nats fans! Your team will not have the worst record in baseball this season! Stephen Strasburg will win 10 games! Jason Marquis and Chien Ming Wang are wonderful additions to a terrible pitching staff! Unfortunately these changes won't make much of a difference this season. I see this team really emerging with a couple more moves in 2011 but this year they remain in the cellar of the NL EAST
AWARD WINNERS
NL MVP: 1B Albert Pujols- St. Louis
Who could possibly pick against him? He's a triple crown threat every year. His team will most likely represent the NL in the World Series. He's the hands down favorite.
NL Cy Young: SP Tim Lincecum- SF
I'd really like to pick against the wild haired phenom. But honestly, the only person I could see putting up a fight would be Chris Carpenter from St. Louis. True if the Diamondbacks have as much success as I predict Haren and Webb are both candidates, but Lincecum is solid and showing no signs of slowing down. Barring any sort of injury and he will be a three time consecutive Cy Young Winner.
NL Comeback POY: 3B David Wright- NYM
Before last season's injury Wright was a solid 25 HR 120 RBI guy. The fact of the matter is, with him out last season the Mets were just north of pathetic. I think if he puts up the kind of 20/20 numbers he has in the past he'd be the hands down favorite for this distinction.
NL PLAYOFF PICTURE
Brewers vs. Rockies-----Brewers in 5
Braves vs. Cardinals---- Cards in 4
NLCS
Brewers vs. Cards-------Cards in 6
WS
Cards vs. Yankees------Cards in 7
That's my MLB Preview for 2010. Any questions or comments feel free to fire away!
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